Tag Archives: GDP

A Closer Look at Payout Ratios and Earnings

Beyond the growth in nominal GDP, the other two macro-factors that may influence the returns of the S&P 500® Dividends Index: payout ratios and corporate earnings. When corporations make profits, they have a choice: They can either reward shareholders or they can retain and reinvest the earnings.  While some companies, notably fast-growing technology firms, opt Read more […]

The FOMC and GDP: Not As Confusing As It Looks

The statement issued by the FOMC, the Fed’s policy making unit, following its meeting on Wednesday sent a clear message that the central bank expects to raise interest rates at its next sit-down in December.  Thursday morning at 8:30 AM the Bureau of Economic Analysis published the advance estimate of third quarter GDP showing a Read more […]

Will Greece Default, And Does It Matter?

Once again, Europe’s banking and finance chiefs are hunkered around the negotiating table. The Greek prime minister is optimistic a deal can be reached, the German finance minister dismissive. A debt payment is due; it is two minutes to midnight.  The markets are hanging by a thread on the outcome. Writing the news is getting Read more […]

Sluggish GDP Growth

First quarter U.S. GDP will be reported on Wednesday morning April 29th; the consensus is for only one percent real growth.  The last few years have been marked by poor GDP growth. The chart compares actual GDP to potential GDP and shows that six years after the Great Recession GDP remains well below its potential. Read more […]

The Empowering Ability to be Selective in Emerging Markets

With a recent webinar on China, an ETF.COM article titled “Global Investors Plan To Shun Emerging Markets” caught my eye.  The article, written by Rachael Ravesz, noted that 29% of the 4,208 investors surveyed by asset manager Legg Mason planned to move money from Emerging Markets into Developed Markets.  The article shared a few reasons Read more […]

GDP: Getting Difficult to Predict

In the past 12 months, the S&P GSCI All Crude has lost almost 50% and has moved to the forefront of macroeconomic forces impacting the global economy. In the context of history, today’s oil price drop is not unprecedented in magnitude or duration as you can see in the chart below. In fact, there has been Read more […]

Today’s Economic Indicators not moving the dial on yields.

The yield on the S&P/BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Index since its step down on May 13th as a result of Retail Sales has remained in a range of 2.48% to 2.58%.  There are a number of economic releases scheduled to follow the U.S. Memorial Day Holiday.  Today’s reporting of Durable Goods Orders (0.8% versus Read more […]

The Fed and GDP

On Wednesday morning the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported disappointing numbers for first quarter GDP with real growth a scant 0.1% at annual rates – essentially zero.  The same day the Fed reported on its two day policy meeting stating that the economy continues to improve and, as a result, the reductions in quantitative Read more […]

US Economy Finished 2013 Healthier than Ever

The US economy finished 2013 healthier than it has been since the depths of the financial recession in 2008 and 2009.  There were a number of milestones in 2013; many have not been fully appreciated. First, the US energy production boom has probably adding some 0.5% annually to US real GDP.  US crude oil production Read more […]