Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

Rising Rates Arrive

Which of the figures below belong together?   It’s obvious, even if analogies aren’t your strong suit, that A is like C and B is like D.  A and C are not like B and D. The economic relevance of this simple visual exercise is this: At its March 2017 meeting, the Federal Open Market Read more […]

Bank Lending: More Demand, Tighter Standards

Three times a year the Federal Reserve surveys bank lending officers about credit standards, loan pricing and the demand for borrowing.  The Survey provides insights into business and consumer borrowing as well as where the economy may be headed.  The results of the July 2016 survey, released today, echo the details in last week’s GDP Read more […]

Countdown to Tomorrow

Tomorrow the Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points  — the first increase in seven years.   This increase, assuming that it comes, must surely rank among the Fed’s most advertised and anticipated moves ever, and Wall Street trading desks are ramping up in expectation of heightened trading volumes.   We have Read more […]

Food Price Inflation and El Nino Possibility

Food price inflation is increasing sharply in the US. Only last December 2013, food prices were just 1.05% higher than the previous December. As of May 2014, food price inflation was running at 2.46% (year over year) and possibly heading above 4% by late 2014 or early 2015. Now, the Federal Reserve (Fed) prefers to Read more […]

Index of Leading Indicators Kicks-Off the Week

The yield on the 10-year Treasury as measured by the S&P/BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Index suddenly moved higher to 2.78% from the previous day’s 2.64%.  Thursday’s upward movement before the Good Friday Holiday was a result of negotiations over the Ukraine crisis possibly resulting in an accord to defuse the conflict. Yields in Read more […]

Fixed Income Update: Presidents’ Day Week

A short week ahead due to yesterday’s President’s Day Holiday.  Treasuries gained today as the Empire Manufacturing report released today was a 4.48.  The survey of manufacturing executives was bearish when compared to the expected number of 8.5 and its prior number of 12.51.  February’s home builder’s sentiment was also lower as the National Association Read more […]

No Tricks, Just Treats From The Fed This Halloween

It recently struck me that the announcement day for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting would coincide with what is known locally as “Mischief Night”. Mischief Night is the night before Halloween when kids play trick on neighbors by hanging toilet paper in the trees or soaping car windows. If anyone was positioned to play a Read more […]

Tapering Away

Next week the Federal Open Market Committee, meeting for the first time since July, is widely expected to announce the tapering of its quantitative easing program.  Whether the Fed begins to reduce its bond purchases now or later this year, most observers recognize its inevitability.  Indeed, as we’ve noted before, even the anticipation of tapering Read more […]