Tag Archives: Economic Update
The Shrinking US Federal Budget Deficit
The US federal budget has a reasonable probability (our base case scenario) of reaching operational balance – revenues equal expenses excluding interest expense – by FY2015. This is an amazing turnaround and it means that budget deficit is now shrinking faster, meaning reduced supply of US Treasuries, even as the Federal Reserve tapers its quantitative…
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National Credit Default Rates Decreased in December 2013 According to the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices
S&P Dow Jones Indices released the latest results for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices. Data is through December 2013 S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices Press Release – January 2014
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US Economy Finished 2013 Healthier than Ever
The US economy finished 2013 healthier than it has been since the depths of the financial recession in 2008 and 2009. There were a number of milestones in 2013; many have not been fully appreciated. First, the US energy production boom has probably adding some 0.5% annually to US real GDP. US crude oil production…
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