Tag Archives: crude oil

Crude Oil: On Production, Performance, and Roll Yield

In November 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil production surpassed 10 million barrels per day for the first time since November 1970. After 1970, it began to decline, dropping bellow 7 million barrels per day in February 1993, below 6 million barrels in March 1999, and then remaining at that level Read more […]

Energy Stocks Beat Oil Futures In Rising Inflation

There may be a legitimate concern about rising inflation since inflation has been under the Fed’s target for years and there is now very low unemployment with signs of accelerating economic growth.  The low unemployment rate and strong growth are probably positive for the stock market and the tax cuts may provide even more upside.  However, Read more […]

Q4 2017: Crude Oil Is Black Gold, With Some Nuances

As of Dec. 18, 2017, the S&P GSCI is up 4.6% for the quarter, driven by petroleum, which is up 9.9% and makes up more than 59% of the index. So far in the quarter, the S&P GSCI Crude Oil is up 9.8% and the S&P GSCI Brent Crude is up 12.7%. The difference in Read more […]

Energy Posts Gains and Petroleum Boasts Improved Roll Yields

The S&P GSCI was up 1.4% with a YTD return of 1.3% in November. Of the five sectors in the index, energy and agriculture were positive for the month, up 3.4% and 0.5%, precious metals was flat, while industrial metals and livestock finished the month on a negative note, down 3.2% and 5.5%, respectively. The Read more […]

September Splits Commodities, Led By Strong Energy

The energy fundamentals, helped by Hurricane Harvey, are now in place for solid rebalancing and for potentially continued strong performance. Metals have reflected bullish sentiment but have recently been hindered by Chinese growth and credit concerns. Agriculture has been well oversupplied on better than expected weather and from improving farming technologies. In September, three of Read more […]

OPEC’s Cuts Are Shrinking Trading Opportunities

The unintended consequences of OPEC’s policy (in summer of 2014) of flooding the market with oil to lower prices and gain market share are starting to show.  It seems they failed to realize increasing the price by cutting back supply wouldn’t work with high U.S. inventories.  The spare capacity of OPEC does not matter for Read more […]

Oil Gains This Big Only Happen Around Bottoms

The S&P GSCI (WTI) Crude Oil posted a 3-day gain of 14.4% ending Feb. 17, 2016. This is the biggest 3-day gain in about 6 months for the index, and gains of this magnitude have only happened near oil bottoms. After the index hit its lowest since Nov 4, 2003, on Jan. 20, 2016, it capitulated, Read more […]

Your Gas Prices Should Be Cheaper

Think your gas prices are cheap? Think again. The oil price drop since June 2014 has moved to become one of the most important factors in the global economy. Despite agreement on a chance to change policy, it has divided the world into winners and losers based on importers and exporters. Presumably the winners are Read more […]

WTI Reclaims No.1 Spot As The Benchmark Oil In 2016

S&P Dow Jones Indices today announced the composition and weights for the 2016 S&P GSCI and Dow Jones Commodity Index. The two indices have the same constituents by definition but the weighting methodologies are different. The DJCI is equally weighted with 1/3 of its weight to each sector – energy, metals, and agriculture and livestock, Read more […]

Commodities Post 4th Biggest 2-Day Gain Since 1970

As of the close on Aug. 28, 2015, the S&P GSCI Total Return gained 8.98%, the most in 2 days since Jan. 2, 2009.  It was the 4th best gain over 2 consecutive days in the history of the index that has data beginning on Jan. 2, 1970. The bigger 2-day gains are shown in Read more […]