Tag Archives: CPI

3 Reasons To Love Equities When Rates Are Rising

Equities haven’t been the most lovable asset class lately but there are reasons to love them despite these prickly times.  The first reason to love equities in rising rate times is that they have gained significantly. Since 1971, the S&P 500 (TR) has gained about 20% on average in rising rate periods, has gained 8 of Read more […]

Inflation News and Fears

Two weeks ago inflation fears sparked by a surprise jump in wage gains sent the markets into a tail spin. This week will deliver two rounds of inflation news with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday.  Month to month changes in both the CPI and PPI Read more […]

Energy Stocks Beat Oil Futures In Rising Inflation

There may be a legitimate concern about rising inflation since inflation has been under the Fed’s target for years and there is now very low unemployment with signs of accelerating economic growth.  The low unemployment rate and strong growth are probably positive for the stock market and the tax cuts may provide even more upside.  However, Read more […]

Dollar’s Revival Adds New Life To These Commodities

It makes sense that a strong US dollar is generally bad for commodities since as the U.S dollar strengthens, goods priced in dollars become more expensive for other currencies. However, historically the U.S. dollar has a negative correlation of only about -0.30 with the S&P GSCI as shown in the chart below using data since 1970: This may Read more […]

Asia Fixed Income: A Closer Look at Indian Bonds

The CPI inflation rate in India rose as expected to 5.0% year-over-year in May 2015(from 4.9% in April), led by a higher crude oil price.  The market is now expecting the Reserve Bank of India to remain on hold, in contrary to their expectation that most other emerging market policy rate decisions will have a Read more […]

February Made Bonds Shiver, While Energy Kept High Yield Warm

Investment-grade corporate yields widened by 15 bps, as the yield-to-worst of the S&P U.S. Issued Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index moved from a level of 2.16% at the beginning of the month to 2.76% at the end of month.  The price return of the index was -1.44% MTD, but 30 bps of coupon return brought Read more […]

Are TIPS Insurance on a Sunny Day?

The current quote of NYMEX crude is lower by $2 today as the price action of crude oil has been on a downhill slide since the end of June 2014.  The news is loaded with stories of oil and its effects on consumers and the economy.  Min Zeng of the Wall Street Journal published “Closely Read more […]

Low Chinese CPI: A Commodity Catalyst?

Following weak Chinese economic data, several headline stories broke about commodities crashing although the only sectors with consistent losers are energy and grains.  One news story stated, “Copper prices resumed their decline on Wednesday, after data showed that inflation in China slowed to the lowest level in five years, underling concerns over a slowdown in Read more […]

Canada’s Inflation is Heating Up For The Winter

The end of last year saw Canada’s CPI move up from the October level of 0.7 to a 1.2 for December.  Since then it has stepped up in 2014 peaking at 2.4 in June before trending back down to September’s 2.0.  In light of this, the October report of 2.4 came as a surprise to Read more […]

A Renewed Interest in High Yield Bonds

High Yield Bond Market – Outlook has changed to the positive, away from the recent stories of overvaluation and fund withdrawals. The S&P U.S. Issued High Yield Corporate Bond Index returned 1% last week and a 0.43% the week before to recover the loss incurred the last week of July (-1.38%).  Year-to-date the index is Read more […]