Tag Archives: correlation

2017…Among the Sleepiest of Years

If 2016 was unremarkable, 2017 was downright sleepy…at least as far as equity markets were concerned. In 2017, the S&P 500 notched the lowest level of volatility in 27 years. Both dispersion and correlations were among the lowest levels in the same period. This is in spite of a year that was far from lacking Read more […]

Active Managers: Hope for high dispersion, not just low correlations

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that, according to analysis by Credit Suisse, the correlation among S&P 500 sectors had fallen close to its lowest level ever, and that this was good for active equity managers, “who find it easier to make money betting on specific companies or trends when stocks aren’t all moving together.” Read more […]

Why Energy May Halt This Commodity Rally

Although OPEC agreed to cut production to help support the oil price, they may have miscalculated their power as a cartel.  The U.S. producers are filling in the gap causing inventories to soar, and that has caused the S&P GSCI Crude Oil index to fall 9.4% this month. It is the biggest 9-day decline since Read more […]

Remarkably Unremarkable

In geopolitical terms 2016 was a tumultuous year. From the outcome of the Brexit referendum to the surprising conclusion of the U.S. presidential election, 2016 was a year of political surprises. The markets, braced or not, reacted differently in each case. We saw heightened correlation in the aftermath of Brexit and observed higher dispersion immediately Read more […]

Asian Fixed Income: Did the FOMC Affect Asian Sovereign Bonds?

The U.S. Federal Reserve recently announced a rate hike of 0.25%, while indicating more rate hikes are likely in 2017.  As of Dec. 21, 2016, the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Index had lost 0.58% for the month, bringing its total return to 0.06% YTD, while its yield widened 27 bps to 1.75% in the same Read more […]

Quiet Before the Storm

Quiet Before the Storm? Global markets seemingly remain unperturbed—despite homing in on Election Day in the U.S.  Although dispersion ticked up globally from September month-end levels, it is still sitting at below average levels as of October 31 in the U.S. Similarly, correlation is also well below average. Together these coordinates are pointing to particularly Read more […]

The Worst of Both Worlds

For active managers, investment results are partly a function of skill and partly a function of the environment in which that skill is exercised.  Even perfect foresight has only conditional value.  Imagine, for example, a manager who can always identify the top quintile of performers in a given market.  If the top quintile outperforms the index as Read more […]

The Most Tranquil of Times

In step with the July, global markets calmed further in August. Based on the dispersion-correlation map, which provides a framework through which we can assess market volatility, equities have entered a very tranquil environment. It wasn’t too long ago that correlation spiked in equity markets due to geopolitical events. That heightened correlation was resolved swiftly Read more […]

Japanese Market Participants Accessing U.S. Treasuries (Part 1)

Since the negative interest rate policy was announced by the Bank of Japan, the yield of the S&P Japan Sovereign Bond Index has tightened 33 bps to -0.07%, as of Aug. 23, 2016.  As the quantitative and qualitative easing program continues, some Japanese market participants seek investments that diversify their portfolios.  U.S. treasury bonds have Read more […]

Calm After the Storm

The dispersion-correlation map helps us to understand the dynamics of market volatility better. Last month we observed high levels of correlation in markets across the globe following the unexpected results of the Brexit referendum. High correlation levels can be a reflection of market fragility. However, as current dispersion and correlation levels indicate, the heightened readings Read more […]