Initial Q1,’14 S&P 500 stats:

With 95% of EPS reported and approximately 80% of the data items collected via S.E.C. documents: Buybacks: Buybacks are on track to be the second highest on record, as more companies do Share Count Reduction (SCR), therefore giving their EPS a tailwind. With over 90% of the issues reported, 119 issues have decreased their share Read more […]

S&P BSE SENSEX – Does it really reflect the performance of the Indian Capital Market?

It’s hot out there in India. Is it because of the peak of summer? Or because of the Modi swearing in as a PM? Or because of the S&P BSE SENSEX is reaching new highs in the past few weeks? On May 9, 2014, the index reached another new, all-time high of 23,048.49 (price return Read more […]

The Challenging Outlook for Interest Rates

Analysts and forecasters in the US expect that the Fed will hold the fed funds rate at its current zero to 25 bp target until around the middle of 2015.  Meanwhile, expectations about Europe are shifting.   Recent comments from the UK by the former deputy governor of the Bank of England and others suggest that Read more […]

Worth Every Penny

This morning’s Wall Street Journal reports that “Investors are piling into the shares of small, risky companies at the fastest clip on record, in search of investments that promise a chance of outsize returns….”  We’ve commented on such risk-seeking behavior earlier, because it has an important bearing on the low volatility anomaly. The tendency for low-volatility or Read more […]

VIX: Reverting to the Mode

In the article at this link, Bill Luby – VIX analyst extraordinaire – dispels a misconception I have heard repeated at conferences and in presentations. Very often, people refer to VIX as “mean reverting.” This is not correct in the strictest sense of that phrase. VIX is not inclined to return to its long-term average. Read more […]

Three Myths of the U.S. Senior Loan Market

The S&P/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index has returned 1.76% year to date under performing vs. fixed rate high yield bonds.  The low rate environment and continued demand for yield generating asset classes has pushed the S&P U.S. Issued High Yield Corporate Bond Index returns to  4.32% year to date as yields have fallen by Read more […]

Building the Hope for Change

Last week India witnessed a historic event at the declaration of its 16th Lok Sabha election results. After a span of over 30 years has there been such a majority mandate handed out by the Indian voters who confirmed their need for change. Equity Markets The Indian equity market investors greeted the news favourably with Read more […]

3 Reasons Putin’s Nat Gas Deal Is A Big Deal

It’s not just because it took 10 years to negotiate with China or is worth $400 billion, but the new deal Gazprom signed to supply 38 billion cubic meters (bcm), which is about the amount NY state uses annually, of natural gas to China each year for the next 30 years may be a major game changer Read more […]

Market Reflects Negative Outlook for Homebuilding In 2014

The U.S. Department of Commerce released data last Friday showing that housing starts in April were up 26.4% from April of last year and 13.2% since March. In a vacuum, you would expect that the market would look favorably on the homebuilder’s market when the amount of homes being built is increasing. The home building Read more […]

Hedge Funds Agonistes

 “A lot of people were hoping this year would turn out to be a stockpickers’ market, but that has turned out to be anything but the case so far” – Troy Gayeski, partner and senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge. At the beginning of this year, we indicated that despite a chorus of voices to the contrary, Read more […]