Right Conclusion (maybe), Wrong Reason (definitely)

This morning’s Wall Street Journal joined (actually, re-enlisted in) the chorus of those arguing that 2014 would be a time for stock pickers to “shine.”  The lynchpin of the Journal‘s case will be familiar to advocates of a “stock-picker’s market.”  That argument is that since correlations in the U.S. equity market are declining (perhaps as Read more […]

Retail Sales Hop Before the Easter Weekend

Treasuries closed the week returning 1.02% as measured by the S&P/BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index.  Last week’s return was the strongest weekly return since the flight to safety trade driven by Ukraine / Russia news from the week of March 14th, which remains the largest weekly gain for the year. This week Read more […]

Introduction to Preferred Shares in Canada

What are Preferreds? Preferred shares are hybrid equity securities, with characteristics that lie between the traditional fixed income and equity asset classes.  Like common shares, preferred shares represent ownership in a company and are listed as equity on the balance sheet; the ownership isn’t entirely the same though.  Preferreds have preferential rights to dividend payments Read more […]

S&P 5-YEAR DIVIDEND SNAPSHOT (and know when your paycheck comes in)

March marked the fifth anniversary from the Bear market low. Dividends have not only recovered from their bottom, but are setting new records. Yields are less, but relative to other instruments they remain competitive, and have a much lower tax rate. Two observations that became apparent are the risk-reward trade off and the yields. For Read more […]

U.S. Domestic Dividends Set Record Increases

Data is for U.S. Domestic Common Stock, not just the S&P 500 U.S. domestic common issues set a first quarter record for dividend increases, as the ‘shareholder’ return theme continued. Increases have been made easier by record earnings and record cash holdings. Additionally, many issues (especially large-caps) have heard the knocking at the boardroom door Read more […]

What Is So Super About Chinese Demand?

We have heard for many years now about the Chinese super-cycle that supported commodity prices since 1999 and we have also heard many debates about whether it has ended.  So if it has ended what now? How huge is the impact on commodity prices? That all depends on the level of inventories that result from Read more […]

Food Drives March

Commodities continue their comeback as supply shocks prevail over demand growth concerns from China. The backwardation (indicative of shortage), measured by roll yield or the excess return minus the spot return, has not only persisted from February into March but increased.  March’s roll yield of 26 basis points more than doubled February’s roll yield of Read more […]

March On

TAKEAWAYS & FYIs (commentary): U.S.-Russian relations continued to decline, but markets didn’t see it as major issue; European markets have been more concerned about oil and gas sales from Russia, as Russia needs the currency and Europe needs the products The Fed moved the conversation from stimulus ending to increasing interest rates, but after an Read more […]

What’s In Their Wallet?

S&P 500 Industrials have easily set a sixth consecutive quarterly record for cash and equivalent on hand (under current assets, mark-to-market), sitting on what amounts to 94 weeks of net earnings (latest 12 months). The $1.3 trillion is not making much as it sits in short-term investments or banks, regardless of its U.S. or foreign Read more […]

Inside the S&P 500: Multiple Share Classes

Later this week when Google’s class C shares begin trading there will be 500 companies but 501 different ticker symbols and stocks in the S&P 500.  And beginning September 15, 2015, companies in the 500 which have multiple share classes will have all their liquid classes included.  The weight of each company will represent the Read more […]