Category Archives: Uncategorized

Skipping Dessert?! Coffee, Sugar, Cocoa OR Bear, Bear, Bull

Sorry, grains and meats, you are not one of the four main food groups. Since this is the case, eating may have just become more expensive, especially for the high-end chocolate lover. Not me of course… but once again, as a commodity lady, when I consume goods (or goodies) and notice that prices are increasing Read more […]

Looking for What Works at the Fed

The FOMC, the Fed’s policy makers, meet Tuesday and Wednesday this week.  For investors the key agenda items are tapering and the future of QE3. Interest rate policy is almost forgotten as everyone prepares to scan the announcement expected at 2 PM Wednesday and then rush to either buy, or sell, bonds.  Market pundits seem Read more […]

Companies Dying Faster?

MIT’s Technology Review pitches an argument by Richard N Foster, well known consultant, which uses exits from the S&P 500 to show that companies suffer shorter lifespans these days and are dropping off indices faster than they used to.  Foster includes a chart showing a seven year moving average of corporate lifespans including a forecast beyond Read more […]

Commodity Beta: Hogs-Wild? Hardly. Energy Fills the Thrill!

If you believe the S&P 500, which is market cap weighted, is considered the U.S. stock market beta, then the S&P GSCI, which is world-production weighted (analogous to market cap weighted), is the logical choice for commodity beta.  Typically, using an index, namely the S&P 500, as the benchmark for beta is standard practice in Read more […]

RECORD BREAKING MONTH: Commodities Love War and Heat

August was a hot month for commodities from the Syrian unrest and the heat.  In the risk on – risk off environment created by the quantitative easing, the sentiment has shifted to risk off. While that is not good news for some economically sensitive commodities like copper, it is great news for others like precious Read more […]

Too High or Too Low? Look at Tobin’s Q

August was not the best of months in the stock market: the S&P 500 lost 3.1% and the Dow lost 4.4%.  This leaves investors wondering what’s next? The stock market bounces up and down more often with more amplitude and less method to its madness than the rest of the economy.   If one could get Read more […]

Back to School Shopping: Pricey Clothes Are Not Just Name-Brand

If you are back to school shopping and notice clothing prices are higher this year, don’t just blame it on designer brands. Cotton has been on a roll as measured by the S&P GSCI Cotton, which is up 21.5% YTD through Aug. 19, 2013. The last time the S&P GSCI Cotton was up over 20% YTD through Read more […]

Fear Gauge Spikes: Let’s Play Hot Potato

For what risk does the commodity investor get paid? At what point is the fear gauge so high the risk gets passed like a hot potato? The answers to these questions will help explain why post the global financial crisis there has been a link between VIX spikes and commodity losses. Let’s address the first Read more […]

How Badly is Gold Bleeding?

In light of much negative news about the bust in gold, I thought it might be interesting to share the impact the gold drop has had on dollar exposure in the two most widely used commodity indices, the S&P GSCI and DJ-UBS.  Below is a note we published today in a media bulletin: Good afternoon Read more […]

Good Calls and Bad Calls of Covered Calls

Generally investors use covered calls to earn extra income from investments they think might not have much upside potential.  For example, if a CEO has a very large stock holding in his or her company but doubts the stock price will increase (or decrease much), writing (selling) options on the stock to collect a premium Read more […]