Category Archives: Fixed Income

Inflation and the Fed

Despite today’s very low inflation the Fed keeps raising interest rates and is now discussing when to shrink its balance sheet to further tighten monetary policy.  The Fed’s own inflation forecast anticipates continued low inflation at 1.6% in 2017 creeping up to 2% in 2018 and 2019 and not seeing any increase later on. Moreover, Read more […]

Asian Fixed Income: The Birth of Bond Connect

As a follow up to the previous article, Bond Connect officially launched on July 3, 2017. Bond Connect allows international market participants to trade China’s interbank bonds through the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.  It marked a milestone in China to further open up its capital market, following the China Interbank Bond Market (CIBM) announcement last Read more […]

A View of Central Banks in Latin America

On June 22, 2017, Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) made another hike in its policy rate, saying that it was consistent with the efficient convergence process of the 3% inflation objective.  For Banxico, this is the fourth adjustment of the year, and the 19th since Banxico started a rising rates cycle in late 2015.  With all Read more […]

60% of Japanese Sovereign Bonds Are Experiencing Negative Yields

In our last piece, we discussed the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy and how the yields of Japanese sovereign bonds have responded since 2016. The latest BoJ minutes released on June 26, 2017, reiterated that it “should continue with the current monetary policy,” while it also stated that it is “necessary to reduce the Read more […]

Rieger Report: Munis – “The Kids are Alright”

As we approach the mid-year point of 2017 the muni bond market has not been shaken by a heavy news cycle of downgrades, negative watches and ever present Illinois and Puerto Rico downbeat press.  Technical factors play a big role in overcoming this pressure but there are other compelling rationale in support of munis in the Read more […]

Rieger Report: Muni Market’s Moot Reaction to Bond Insurers Credit Watch Negative

So far, the municipal bond market has seen only a modest reaction to the recent negative credit watch being placed on the ratings of several bond insurers. Month to date as of June 12, 2017, the S&P Municipal Bond Insured Index tracking over $148billion in par value of insured bonds has performed in sync with the overall Read more […]

Are Leveraged Loans Losing Their Luster…or Poised to Shine?

Leveraged loans (also called senior loans or bank loans) typically pay a two-part coupon—a market-driven base rate (30-90 day LIBOR) plus a contractual credit spread.  As shown in Exhibit 1, the weighted average credit spread of U.S. leveraged loans, as measured by the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan 100 Index, has fallen steadily and now sits at Read more […]

Rieger Report: Corporate Junk Bonds – “Danger, Will Robinson!”

The bond markets are certainly not “Lost in Space”1. There is good rationale as to why the bond markets are in the position they are today; compressed spreads are the result of low rates coupled with strong demand out pacing supply for yield assets.   However, the homogenization of the US corporate bond markets is worrisome and should Read more […]

Rieger Report: Illinois G.O.s on the Edge

The recent ratings downgrades by both Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings have placed the State of Illinois general obligation bonds on the edge of becoming junk.  As of this writing, the ratings are Baa3/BBB-/BBB by Moody’s, S&P and Fitch. The fiscal struggle endured by Illinois has indeed been a long one, now yields for Illinois G.O.s have Read more […]

Asian Fixed Income: An Update on the Indian Bond Market

As of June 5, 2017, the yield of Indian sovereign bonds, as tracked by the S&P BSE India Sovereign Bond Index, stood at 7.03%—the second-highest sovereign bond yield among the Pan Asian countries, following that of Indonesia, at 7.09%. The yield of the S&P BSE India Sovereign Bond Index climbed 19 bps YTD as of Read more […]