Erik Norland
Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
Gold & Silver: Fed Rate Hike Vs Mine Supply
Two factors tend to consistently influence gold and silver — interest rate expectations and mining supply. Changes in interest rate expectations typically exert a short-term, day-to-day influence that is exogenous to the metals market while mining supply has a long-term, year-to-year influence that is endogenous. Precious metals prices seem to exert little to no influence…
- Categories Uncategorized
- Tags CME, Fed, futures, gold, inflation, silver, U.S. Federal Reserve
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Dividend Volatility and Correlations
Equity markets are notoriously volatile, at least when compared to fixed income. Dividend payments, by contrast, while not fixed like many bond coupons, offer market participants a much less volatile and more fixed income-like risk and return profile. For the 25 years from 1990 to 2015, the annual variation in S&P 500® dividend points has…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
- Tags CME, dividends, equities, equity markets, S&P 500
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- Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
A Closer Look at Payout Ratios and Earnings
Beyond the growth in nominal GDP, the other two macro-factors that may influence the returns of the S&P 500® Dividends Index: payout ratios and corporate earnings. When corporations make profits, they have a choice: They can either reward shareholders or they can retain and reinvest the earnings. While some companies, notably fast-growing technology firms, opt…
A simple model of aggregate dividend growth
Dividends are getting more and more into the spotlight as overall corporate earnings growth continues to face many challenges in a low inflation and relatively slowly growing world. And, a U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield of sub-2% certainly adds interest to the dividends that can be earned from S&P 500® companies. And, dividends may also…
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- Tags dividends
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- dividends