Indexology^® Blog

Capital markets in India had a bull run in 2017 and gave exponential returns across size, segments, and sectors. In this blog, we will analyze how capital markets in India have performed in 2017.

Exhibit 1 and 2 showcase returns for India’s four leading size indices in 2017. 

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data from Dec. 31, 2016, to Dec. 31, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

Exhibit 2: Index Total Returns

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data from Dec. 31, 2016, to Dec. 31, 2017. Index performance based on total return in INR. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

From Exhibits 1 and 2, we can see that all four indices performed well, and returns have been promising for large-, mid-, and small-cap segments. The returns of the small- and mid-cap segments have been better than the large-cap segment. The S&P BSE SmallCap and S&P BSE MidCap posted one-year absolute returns of 60.80% and 49.90%, respectively, while the S&P BSE LargeCap and S&P BSE SENSEX returned 31.55% and 29.56%, respectively.

Exhibits 3 and 4 showcase returns for the 11 leading sector indices for India in 2017. 

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data from Dec. 31, 2016, to Dec. 31, 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

Exhibit 4: Index Total Returns 

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data from Dec. 31, 2016, to Dec. 31, 2017. Index performance based on total return in INR.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

From Exhibits 3 and 4, we can see that most of the sector indices have posted promising returns. The S&P BSE Realty had the best return in 2017, with 107.24%, followed by the S&P BSE Basic Materials, S&P BSE Consumer Discretionary, and S&P BSE Telecom, which had one-year absolute returns of 57.90%, 55.66%, and 51.10%, respectively. The S&P BSE Information Technology and S&P BSE Healthcare were the worst-performing indices in 2017, with absolute returns of 13.29% and 1.10%, respectively.

To summarize, we can say that the bulls had their way in 2017, and indices across various size, segments, and sectors have given exponential returns.

2017 was the sixth consecutive year of record U.S. corporate bond issuances, as companies continued to take advantage of the accommodative environment created by low interest rates and strong investor demand. As measured by the S&P 500^® Bond Index, 325 companies came to market for a total of over USD 775 billion in 2017.

Approximately 65% of issuances were refinancings, with corporations looking to lock in lower interest rates and extend maturities. Of the nearly USD 800 billion of bonds to enter the index in 2017, 20% of issues were 30-year term deals, lifting the weighted average maturity of the index close to its 2015 peak (see Exhibit 1). The remaining USD 270 billion of net new issuance propelled the market value of the S&P 500 Bond Index to over USD 4.5 trillion by the end of 2017—an increase of 2.0 trillion since 2011 (see Exhibit 1).

As expected, financial corporations were the top issuers in 2017; companies in the information technology and consumer discretionary sectors filled out the top three. Combined, companies from these three sectors accounted for more than 50% of all debt issuances to enter the index in the year. Issuers from all 11 GICS^® sectors were represented (see Exhibit 2).

The 10 largest non-financial issuers accounted for over USD 180 billion of activity in 2017. Activity related to mergers and acquisitions was a predominant driver of bond issuance, as 6 of the top 10 issuers were involved in some form of M&A in 2017. Share buybacks and dividends were also a popular use of proceeds. Both Apple and Microsoft issued bonds to help fund their expanded share repurchase programs (see Exhibit 3).

For more information on the S&P 500 Bond Index, please visit https://spindices.com/indices/fixed-income/sp-500-bond-index.

2018 is set to be a major year for sustainable business. The new year is a time to take stock of where we are going—and we are grateful for the opportunity to dig deep into our data to answer the question: “Is the needle moving on sustainable business?”

Each year in the State of Green Business Report, we assess more than 30 indicators of corporate sustainability performance across the world’s top companies.

First, the good news.

• The carbon emissions of the world’s largest businesses continue to decrease in absolute terms, reaching the lowest level in the past five years as a result of a switch to cleaner fuels.
• There have been some global improvements in water use and waste management.
• The number of companies setting carbon and water reduction targets has increased by about 10% over the past five years.

However, the carbon reduction targets set by the 1,200 largest global companies and 500 largest U.S. companies fall short of the contribution needed to align with the 2°C target to limit global warming in the Paris Agreement.

Given that top global companies account for 10% of total emissions, Trucost calculates that the proportional reductions these companies need to make by 2050 and 2100 to align with the 2°C target are 3 and 5 metric gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent, respectively. U.S. companies, which account for 4% of total emissions, would need to make proportional reductions of 1.2 GtCO2e by 2050 and 1.9 GtCO2e by 2100 in order to align with the 2°C goal (see Exhibit 1).

Yet the carbon targets set by top global and U.S. companies (0.7 and 0.2 GtCO2e, respectively) account for only 22% and 20% of their share of reduction needed by 2050, respectively. The targets currently in place are even smaller compared with the reduction needed by 2100, accounting for 13% and 12% by global and U.S. companies, respectively.

What’s Going to Change?

Carbon prices will need to reach USD 120 per metric ton by 2030 to achieve the Paris Agreement goal, according to modeling using the Trucost Corporate Carbon Pricing Tool. During this transition period, companies will need to understand how the intricacies of diverse carbon pricing policies could affect their operations, revenues, and supply chains—making use of forward-looking data and analytical tools capable of assessing carbon pricing risk under a variety of scenarios in different sectors and regions. The use of such tools by businesses is being encouraged by the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures.

Research by Trucost shows the potential impact of increasing carbon prices on companies. It found that 30% of profits in the automobile sector could be at risk by 2050, while the chemicals sector could have 60% of its profits at risk. The power sector could have its profits wiped out completely.

Many market participants we speak to agree that understanding carbon pricing risk is the key to unlocking more ambitious carbon reduction initiatives and greater investment. Scenario analysis can be used to make the case for setting ambitious carbon targets that are aligned with climate science. Investors want to understand how companies are using carbon pricing scenarios to mitigate risk and direct capital to innovations that will succeed in the transition to a low-carbon economy.

So yes, the needle is moving—and it’s time to get ahead of it.

Find out more in The State of Green Business 2018.

The first Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) tracking municipal bonds were launched in September 2007. Since then the municipal ETF market has grown to 40 ETFs representing over $30.5billion in assets under management.

Municipal Bond ETF Market Snap Shot:

• 40 ETFs all but one represents tax-exempt municipal bonds. There is one ETF tracking taxable municipal bonds.
• $30.5billion in ETF assets (4.4% of total ETF and mutual fund assets)
• 8 ETFs have assets over $1billion
• 16 ETFs have assets between $100million and $1billion
• 16 ETFs have assets of less than $100million
• 29 ETFs are passively managed (representing over 99% of assets)
• 11 ETFs are actively managed (representing less than 1% of municipal ETF assets)

Chart 1: Municipal ETF and Mutual Fund Assets:

Chart 2: Number of Municipal ETFs and Accumulated Assets:

Chart 3: Active & Passive Municipal Bond ETFs:

For more information on the municipal bond market performance please go to our website www.spindices.coom

Please also join me on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/james-j-r-rieger-9324558

Most S&P and Dow Jones Shariah-compliant benchmarks outperformed their conventional counterparts for the year as information technology companies—which tend to be overweight in Islamic Indices—gained a whopping 39.4% beating the overall market by a wide margin, and financials—which are underrepresented in Islamic indices—experienced some weakness. This marked a reversal from 2016 where a surge in the financial sector late in the year caused Shariah-compliant benchmarks to lag. One notable exception to the 2017 trend was in the middle-east where conventional and Islamic benchmarks tracked closely together since technology stocks are not a meaningful portion of the regional market.

Despite Strong Absolute Returns, U.S. Equities Lag Global Markets for the First Time Since 2012

Global equity markets powered higher in the 4^th quarter capping a very strong 2017. The S&P Global BMI Shariah and Dow Jones Islamic Market World each gained about 25% for the year, beating their conventional counterparts by more than 300 basis points. Emerging markets continued to lead the way as the DJIM Emerging Markets Index closed the year up more than 40% supported by huge gains in large-cap Chinese technology companies such as Tencent and Alibaba. Developed Asia-Pacific markets also experienced notably strong performance in 2017 as the DJIM Asia-Pacific Index finished the year up nearly 36%. Despite closing near a record high and gaining about 20% on the year, the S&P 500^® lagged international markets for the first time since 2012.

MENA Equity Markets Continue to Lag

MENA equities continued to lag broader global equity markets as geopolitical concerns weighed on sentiment and the regional equity market has seen little benefit from the weak dollar and boom in technology stocks that has powered emerging markets more broadly. The S&P Pan Arab Composite Shariah edged slightly higher in the 4^th quarter, finishing the year virtually unchanged. Despite a double-digit rebound in December, the S&P Qatar BMI experienced the steepest losses on the year, falling almost 17%. Meanwhile, the S&P Egypt BMI rose 21% in 2017 as the country has experienced stability following the implementation of the IMF-supported economic reform program in November 2016.